Not sure if this is the right thing to do…
We have acquired some notes from the desk of a precious metals trader yesterday….
We wanted to post them, but have not heard back with permission to do so.
The information is too good to keep quiet, so here they are… un-edited from an anonymous source.
My thoughts on the market
1. KB Homes
- Comments from 1st quarter earning results
2. Pending home sales fell in the month of March
- Due to many people not being able to get loans from the bank because when the banks go to apraise the properties, they cant justify giving loans that big for the property…. maybe they see more trouble on the horizon with the current market that no one else sees
3. Retail traders turns bullish: reference Schwab retail sediment survey
4.Syria is killing their own people, again not hitting theUS news (bbc)
5. Bernake committing to keeping the rates low until 2014, the reason he spoke yesterday morning at 8a EST I feel was because the stock market was due for a major correction. So my thoughts are that he sees things that we cant that are worrying him in the economy going forward.
6. Oil above $100 approaching $110 (as we are writing this Bernake spoke at 4p EST that oil at these levels will hurt growth at 2012 & will cause unwanted inflation.)
7. Volatility is at all time lows because people are very complacent about the stock market meaning that they are safe & feel good about the stock market, which makes me see a contrarian indicator that the market is over bought due for a correction & once again the retail investor will be wrong.
8. Equity mutual funds outflows continue to increase in 2012 while at the same time bond funds continue to increase inflows. I believe the number in march in equity funds is 3 billion. While at the same time 11billion has gone in bond funds.
9. Overall stock market volume is extremely low which is not a good sign for the stock market. “Painting the tape”
10. The S&P 500 is up 32% from the lows to high(Oct/Nov 2011?) until present.
11. Oil at these levels going in to the spring driving season can easily go up to $120 a barrel equaling $4.50-5 a gallon which will hurt growth & deter people from spending.
12. So far in 2012, consumer spending is up while consumer savings has decreased. This is not a positive for a strong economy.
13. Persistent political & major unrest in S. Africa where protestors/militants recently attempted a coup within their borders.
14. We still have 1000 missile’s pointed atIsrael.
15.Iran not conforming to any request to stop nuclear programs – BasicallyIran is the honey badger.
16. No new jobs are being created. Numbers that were somewhat positive could be manipulated due to the fact that we had extremely warm weather in this country this year. I believe because of that the housing numbers looked a little better than normal because people were out looking at homes at what they believe to be rock bottom prices. However, this might have stole home sales which traditionally is the spring season.
17. Volatility is continuing to increase out on the curve meaning stock market correction is looming in the next 4-8 weeks in my belief.
18. Interest rates last week exp on the 10 & 30 year spiked higher that could also be a reason that Bernanke felt he needed to speak yesterday morning in order to push those rates back down so people will still try to buy homes.
19. Debt ceiling issues are quickly approaching us once again.
The president today signed the job act which still needs to be passed by the house and the senate, but if it passes it will make it easier for companies to come to the public markets to raise money which contradicts and goes against the dodd frank law.
20. So what’s what?
21. Case Shiller index in the 10 major cities continues to decrease. The 20 city index continues to decline as well. So while the news and the media the things are getting use better, the true numbers don’t support that argument. In just because even though Lenarr showed better numbers today that’s due to the fact that its tailored to the wealthy. The people that cant get a loan for $200,000 a wealthy person can for a million dollar home.